MIT IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021 (English)

   Monday, December 02, 2024   

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Lecture 1: Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates

Lecture 2: Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts

Lecture 3: Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs

Lecture 4: Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed

Lecture 5: Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept

Lecture 6: Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences

Lecture 7: Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction

Lecture 8: Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis

Lecture 9: Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation

Lecture 10: Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility

Lecture 11: Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties

Lecture 12: Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win

Lecture 13: Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed

Lecture 14: Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process

Lecture 15: Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves

Lecture 16: Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure

Lecture 17: Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation

Lecture 18: Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project

Lecture 19: Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project

Lecture 20: Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important

Lecture 21: Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale

Lecture 22: Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote

Lecture 23: Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers

Lecture 24: Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages

Lecture 25: Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees

Lecture 26: Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees

Lecture 27: Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis

Lecture 28: Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview

Lecture 29: Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test

Lecture 30: Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test

Lecture 31: Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information

Lecture 32: Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information

Lecture 33: Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile?

Lecture 34: Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible?

Lecture 35: Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility

Lecture 36: Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function

Lecture 37: Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences

Lecture 38: Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility

Lecture 39: Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions

Lecture 40: Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways

Lecture 41: Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia

Lecture 42: Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction

Lecture 43: Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis

Lecture 44: Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects

Lecture 45: Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis